The 90-Day Low: How to Spot a Real LEGO Sale (vs Fake Markdown)
Every retailer calls everything a sale. Here's how to tell if you're actually saving money on a LEGO set, or being shown a fake markdown.
The 90-day low rule
At BrickDeals we track the lowest price each set has hit over the previous 90 days. We use that as the baseline for whether a current "sale" is real.
If today's price is at or below the 90-day low, it's a real deal. If today's price is "on sale" but actually higher than the price 30 days ago, you're being managed.
Why retailers do this
It's perfectly legal — and it works. The "was $89.99, now $69.99!" framing triggers a buy decision even when last month the same set was $59.99 with no banner at all.
The FTC has guidance on what counts as a real markdown but enforcement is weak, especially for products like LEGO that move quickly across retailers and seasons.
How to check yourself
Four fast methods:
- CamelCamelCamel — Free price history tracker for Amazon. Shows you the 30/60/90/all-time low.
- Keepa — Browser extension, also Amazon-focused. More detail than Camel.
- BrickDeals — Our own price tracking. We monitor Target, Walmart, and LEGO.com daily and surface 90-day lows on our deal pages.
- Retailer history — Target's price history is harder to access but you can sometimes piece together past pricing through third-party trackers.
Specific examples
- 75313 AT-AT — Hit $664.99 at multiple retailers in early 2025. Subsequent "sale" prices around $679–699 have been advertised as "limited time" even though they were higher than the previous low. Watch the history.
- 42143 Ferrari Daytona — $329 became $349 "on sale" for Father's Day weekend 2025. The $329 price returned in July with no fanfare. The "sale" was a markup.
When "fake" sales are still worth it
If you've been waiting for a price you can stomach and the set is in active retirement risk, paying a slightly inflated "sale" price beats waiting for a deeper cut that may never come. The all-time low isn't always reachable — patience has a cost.
But for everything else, train yourself to check the 90-day before buying. It's a 10-second habit that saves real money over time.
Prices and availability change. Verify before buying.